با همکاری مشترک دانشگاه پیام نور و انجمن جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی روستایی ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

2 استادیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه پیام‌نور، تهران، ایران

3 کارشناس‌ارشد جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی روستایی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

4 دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی روستایی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

10.30473/psp.2025.72775.2745

چکیده

اجرای طرح­های هادی آثار مختلفی در ابعاد اقتصادی، اجتماعی و زیست‌محیطی در مناطق روستایی داشته است. هدف از این پژوهش بررسی اثرات اجرای طرح هادی بر کاهش سطح آسیب­پذیری روستاییان بخش شاندیز شهرستان بینالود در برابر مخاطرات طبیعی(زلزله) است. روش تحقیق توصیفی - تحلیلی و شیوه و ابزار جمع‌آوری داده­ها در مطالعات نظری (کتابخانه‌ای) و در مطالعه میدانی (پرسش‌نامه و مشاهد) بوده است. جامعه آماری این پژوهش 5 روستای دارای طرح هادی از بخش شاندیز شهرستان بینالود بوده است. بر اساس فرمول کوکران در خطای 06/0 و باتوجه‌به جمعیت روستاهای مورد مطالعه حجم نمونه تحقیق 97 خانوار تعیین شد. برای تجزیه‌وتحلیل داده‌ها از آزمون‌های (t تک نمونه‌ای و رگرسیون چندمتغیره و تحلیل مسیر) استفاده شده است. یافته‌های تحقیق نشان داد آن‌چنان‌که انتظار می‌رفت اجرای طرح هادی بسترسازی و کاهش آسیب­پذیری روستاییان را در برابر مخاطرات طبیعی (زلزله) فراهم نموده؛ اما اثراتی به دنبال داشته است. به‌طوری‌که آزمون t تک نمونه‌ای نشان داد این میزان برای برخی از تمامی شاخص­ها پایین­تر از شرایط مطلوب (3) ارزیابی شده است و تفاوت معناداری آن نیز برای همه شاخص‌ها کاملاً معنادار است. همچنین بر اساس آزمون رگرسیون، مقدار ضریب تعیین 894 /0 نشان‌داده‌شده است که متغیر مستقل 89 واحد تغییرات مربوط به متغیر وابسته را تبیین می­کند. آزمون تحلیل مسیر نشان داد که اثرات مستقیم و غیرمستقیم کلی تأثیرات اجرای طرح هادی در کاهش سطح آسیب‌پذیری روستاییان در برابر مخاطرات طبیعی (زلزله) در روستاها نمونه مربوط به متغیر بهبود امنیت کالبدی با میزان 424/0 بوده است. سایر متغیرهای یعنی تقویت شبکه معابر با میزان 414/0؛ افزایش سرمایه‌گذاری با میزان 268/0، مشارکت در مدیریت فضا با میزان 232/0، و رضایتمندی از کالبدی 198/0، افزایش احساس امنیت کالبدی با میزان 195/0 و کاهش مهاجرت با میزان 61/0 رتبه‌های اول تا 7 را به خود اختصاص دادند.

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