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Ecological Footprint Index and Assessment of Biotic Sustainability in the Development of the Tehran-Alborz Metropolitan Area

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Assistant Professor, Department of Environmental Science, Natural Resources Faculty, Lorestan University, ‎‎Khorramabad, Iran‎.‎

2 Professor, Department of Environmental Science, Natural Resources Faculty, University of Tehran, Karaj, ‎Iran.‎

10.30473/psp.2025.73644.2761

Abstract

Cities, as the most consuming ecosystems globally, are responsible for a significant portion of environmental problems. To achieve sustainable development, it is essential to examine the ecological conditions governing these areas. Accordingly, the present study investigated the trend of land cover/use changes during the years 2008-2023, as well as the prediction and modeling of these changes using the Markov chain model and cellular automata (CA-Markov) for the year 2041. Subsequently, the ecological footprint, biocapacity, and ecological deficit/surplus were calculated, and the performance and ecological balance in this region were examined. Finally, ecological pressure and sustainability were also assessed. According to the results, during the years 2008-2023, the most significant decreasing trend was related to sparse rangelands with an area of -1220.7 square kilometers, while the most significant increasing changes were allocated to semi-dense rangelands with an area of 1221.2 square kilometers. In the Tehran-Alborz metropolitan area during the studied years, nearly 2905.2 square kilometers of land cover/use classes showed a decreasing trend, which constitutes 15.41% of the total area of the region. The most significant decreasing trend in 2041 is also related to sparse rangelands with an area of 2661 square kilometers, while the most significant increasing trend is related to semi-dense rangelands with an area of 4548 square kilometers. This trend indicates the rapid pace of urbanization and the transformation of land cover/use classes in this metropolitan area. The investigation of performance and equivalence between land cover/use classes in the region showed that equivalence factors are relatively stable, while performance factors fluctuate significantly. Furthermore, the results indicated that the ecological footprint in the Tehran-Alborz metropolitan area (2008-2041) has an increasing trend, while biocapacity and ecological surplus have a decreasing trend. The ecological footprint index and ecological depth also show an increasing trend, indicating an increase in ecological pressure and a decrease in ecological sustainability during the studied years. Therefore, the realization of sustainable development and the protection of natural resources, as well as establishing a balance between human consumption of resources and the absorption of produced waste by nature, necessitates the action of planners and authorities in preserving and protecting the environment in this area, in a way that they strive to preserve its valuable biological resources and improve the ecological environment in this region.

Keywords

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Physical Social Planning
Volume 11, Issue 4
April 2025
Pages 69-86
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