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Prediction urban land-use change in Tabriz using the SLEUTH model

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 1- PHD Candidate Environmental Science, IAU, Science Research Branch of Tehran

2 Department of Management Planning and Environmental education, University of Tehran

3 Department of Environmental Engineering, University of Tehran

4 Department of RS & GIS, IAU, Science Research Branch of Tehran

Abstract

In recent years, urbanization has been one of the most significant processes of change in society, which is usually accompanied by the destruction of agricultural and natural lands. In their decision-making processes to protect the urban environment, managers need to properly consider the extent and direction of urban growth. The purpose of this study is to predict changes in urban land use in the city of Tabriz, using the SLEUTH urban growth model. The output of the model predicts the growth rate and direction of the city by 2050. The five coefficients obtained for the study area show that according to the historical scenario, the birth rate and the diffusion coefficient are dominant. The high rate of fertility in this area indicates that the probability of converting each urban cell to a city center diffusion cell is high, and as a result, the growth rate of the new diffusion center in the covered area is also high. The high emission coefficient indicates the high probability of new urban spots resulting from spontaneous growth and their transformation into new centers of urban growth. The results of validation using Kappa coefficient show that the modeling has an accuracy of 97.72%. The obtained results can be used to predict the change of urban land use. The obtained results are the outcome of instrumental rationality, and therefore their application requires a critical approach to them.

Keywords

References
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Physical Social Planning
Volume 7, Issue 3 - Serial Number 19
December 2020
Pages 21-33
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