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Assessment and prediction of land use/land cover changes using satellite images and CA-Markov model (Case study: District 22 of Tehran Municipality)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Assistant Professor, Department of Environmental Science, Natural Resources Faculty, Lorestan University, ‎‎Khorramabad, Iran‎.‎

2 Professor, Department of Environmental Science, Natural Resources Faculty, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

10.30473/psp.2026.77866.2812

Abstract

Introduction                               
Land use changes driven by the expansion of human activities are among the most significant threats to urban areas.
Methodology
Accordingly, this study investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of land cover/land use (LULC) changes in Tehran Municipality District 22 during 1995–2025 and predicted future change patterns up to 2041 using the integrated Cellular Automata–Markov (CA–Markov) model. LULC maps were produced for 1995 and 2025, and temporal changes in different land-use classes were analyzed. The CA–Markov model was then applied to simulate future land-use changes, and its performance was evaluated using the Kappa coefficient.
Results
The results indicated that built-up areas exhibited the greatest increase, expanding from 2,572.11 ha in 1995 to 2,827.46 ha in 2025. In contrast, bare areas declined from 2,780.52 ha to 2,391.80 ha during the same period. Water areas and vegetation cover showed increasing trends, whereas agricultural areas continuously decreased throughout the study period. A Kappa coefficient of 0.88 confirmed the high predictive accuracy of the CA–Markov model. According to the simulation results, built-up areas are projected to increase to 2,890.40 ha by 2041, while bare areas are expected to decline to 2,287 ha.
Discussion and Conclusion
These findings indicate the continued expansion of built-up areas, increasing pressure on land resources due to population growth and the concentration of economic and urban development activities. Therefore, mitigating the adverse impacts of LULC change requires effective planning, integrated land management, and sustainable resource utilization. The findings provide a scientific basis for decision-making and urban management strategies to support sustainable urban development.
 

Keywords

References
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Physical Social Planning
Volume 13, Issue 1 - Serial Number 41
June 2026
Pages 15-30
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